Monday, March 30, 2009

Spring `09 Outlook

By Joshua Stone

I wanted to take the time to give everyone a heads up to what most of us all know is coming in the next several weeks; a lot of hysteria.
Probably one of the biggest things coming up right away is the Friday employment numbers; these could be bad, perhaps even sending the three month average down further. The big thing to watch for is the failure of banks as the Fed Stress Tests begin in April.
The coming drop in stocks will be very scary, maybe even new lows, but most of the fundamentals have been calculated into the market at this time, hence the rally from oversold levels. This will present a good opportunity to buy stocks, commodities and to sell the dollar as it hits new record levels on the upside.
Below is an example of a simple chart set-up on eur/usd monthly that with proper money management and patience could give you a good position in a euro long.

You might be saying, “wow, he expects a big drop in the eur/usd,” We will some good support in the weekly levels, perhaps they even hold up. But my feeling is we will be seeing some pretty scary drops coming up in the stocks, and over all quite a bit of volatility as the markets digest all the data we have seen and are still yet to get over the coming weeks and even summer months. My personal hope is we don’t get a repeat of the surprises’ that afflicted the market last summer, that most things will by this summer be on a sideways with up bias trend. But of course one never really knows about the markets and what they plan to do.
I do think that despite the Medias attempts to suddenly turn Obama into a villain, His popularity will actually carry the economy up, as people decide to believe and trust his ability to deal with these crises. Let’s hope so, because if folks actually snap to what’s happened, then we will have a global depression and no chance at all of paying off these huge debts.

No comments:


Search This Blog


Forex trading involves serious risk and has an extremely high failure rate with new traders. Material on this site should not replace sound investment advice from a licensed professional. A small fluctuation in the market can result in substantial losses to your capital so please keep this in mind and use good money management. Live trades should not be placed without an extensive amount of understanding and education. A demo account should be used to test out strategies. or the creator/host or anyone associated/related with the creator/host of this site is not respsonsible for any losses incurred in any market for any reason due to any content on this site or linked sites.